Korea's Steep Decline in Birth Rate

Korea's Steep Decline in Birth Rate

  • 기자명 Daniel Park
  • 입력 2022.03.22 14:18
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[The Public = Daniel Park] Last year, the total fertility rate in Korea (the average number of children expected to be born to one woman aged 15 to 49 in her lifetime) was 0.81, the lowest on record. While the population has been declining for the second year, there is also a creepy pessimism that the fertility rate could reach 0.7 this year and 0.6 next year.

According to the provisional statistics on birth and death in the last year's population trend survey released by the National Statistical Office on the 23rd, the number of births last year was 265,000, the lowest since 1970 when statistics began to be compiled. The number decreased by 4.3%, or 11,800, from 272,300 in the previous year. Compared to the 709,000 people in 1991, 30 years ago, this is a third of the number. It is also less than half of the 560,000 people in 2001. The crude birth rate, which refers to the number of births per 1,000 people, was 5.1, down 0.2 from the previous year. This is also the lowest since statistics were compiled. Korea is already one of the lowest fertility countries among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries, but the cry of newborn babies has decreased even more due to COVID-19.

Even more worrisome is that the rate of decline in the fertility rate is faster than expected.
The National Statistical Office predicted 0.82 children as the most probable scenario (median) when forecasting the fertility rate last year. Assuming the worst-case scenario at that time, the fertility rate was 0.81. The fertility rate announced on the 23rd indicates that the worst-case scenario has become a reality.

The dominant analysis is that the total fertility rate this year will fall to the 0.7 level. If the situation worsens faster than expected, there is a possibility that the fertility rate next year will enter the 0.6 range. According to the future population projections released by the National Statistical Office in December last year, the conservative forecast for this year's total fertility rate is 0.73, and the optimistic forecast is 0.77 to 0.85. However, the conservative forecast for next year's fertility rate is only 0.68. Conservative forecasts for last year and 2020, when the COVID-19 variable acted, coincided. Statistics Korea predicts that the total fertility rate will gradually drop to 0.7 in 2024 and then recover.

The average total fertility rate of 38 OECD member countries in 2019 was 1.61. Korea's total fertility rate was 1.74 in 1984, which first entered the range of 1, and has continued to decrease, but in 2018, it was 0.98, the lowest among OECD countries. Last year, Sejong City had the highest fertility rate at 1.28, and Seoul had the lowest at 0.63.

The decline in births is due to a decrease in the number of marriages and the delay in having children. The cumulative number of marriages between January and December last year was 192,500, down 9.8% or 21,000 from the same period last year. During the same period, the average age of childbirth for mothers was 33.4 years, up 0.2 years from the previous year. As of 2019, the OECD average is 28.3 years old. Noh Hyeong-joon, head of the Population Trends Division at Statistics Korea, said, "The number of births born between 1991 and 1995, who were born when the number of births was 700,000, is now entering the main fertility age (30 years old), which can be a positive factor in the number of births in the future." It is difficult to predict that the number of births will increase as it appears overall (even those born between 1991 and 1995),” he said.

Last year, the number of deaths was the highest since 1970. The number of deaths in the year was 307,800, an increase of 4.2% from the previous year. The survey mortality rate (6.2 people), the number of deaths per 1,000 people, increased by 0.3 from the previous year. It was the highest since 1983 (6.4 people).

As the number of births decreased and the number of deaths increased, the trend of natural population decline (a situation in which there were more deaths than births in one year) continued for the second year. The natural decrease of the population last year was 57,280, up 75.6% from 32,611 the previous year. The National Statistical Office previously predicted that the total domestic population (total of Koreans and foreigners) would peak at about 51.94 million in 2028 and decrease from the following year due to the low birth rate and aging population, but that time has been advanced by nine years.

The rapid decline in fertility and population aging is a fatal blow to the economy. The domestic working-age population (ages 15-64), which was 37,379,000 in 2020, is expected to decrease by 1.77 million over the next five years. In 2070, there are 17,368,000 people, and there is concern that the number will be cut in half. The Korea Institute of Finance predicted that if this trend continues, the potential growth rate will reach 0% by 2030.

From 2006 to 2020, the government invested a total of 380.2 trillion won in the budget to respond to the low birth rate, but with little success. In the midst of this, the government launched the 4th Population Policy Task Force (TF) this year and is fixing the population policy, but the reality is that it is not easy to find a solution. The 4th Population TF will focus on overcoming the low birth rate through increased marriage and will also focus on revitalizing the employment of foreigners and the elderly to maintain economic vitality.

[Image by Pixabay]

The Public / Daniel Park webmaster@thepublic.kr 

더퍼블릭 / Daniel Park webmaster@thepublic.kr

저작권자 © 더퍼블릭 무단전재 및 재배포 금지
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